Currency Outlook

APRIL 2020 CURRENCY OUTLOOK - IN BRIEF

What Happened

  • A deluge of bad developments caused markets to crash. The U.S. Dollar dominant, record high
  • COVID-19 made March a month to forget, but also learn from as the pandemic hit us hard
  • MXN, CAD, and other petro-currencies sank to all-time lows with oil prices worst since 2002
  • An unprecedented amount of monetary easing and fiscal aid have been launched globally
  • Equity markets experienced major losses with the Dow Jones losing a third of its value
  • Tons of jobless claims have been filed as inactivity caused business closures

Tempus’ View

  • April will be monitored as the first month in which we understand the virus’ magnitude
  • Expect grim economic outlooks to start manifesting themselves as data reveals the extent of initial damage to the economy
  • A return to risk-appetite will be challenged by ongoing worry, maintaining buck afloat
  • Oil prices likely to stay low, hard to imagine more losses to MXN, but monetary policy easing will keep downward pressure
  • Q2 will be tough as we continue to deal with virus uncertainty and people shelter in place

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