Currency Outlook

JUNE 2021 – IN BRIEF

What Happened

  • U.S. Dollar weakness continued in May as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1.3%
  • Pound Sterling reached a three-year best as the U.K. navigates through economic recovery as well as political concerns in a post-Brexit reality
  • WTI Crude prices rose by 4.5%, which aided in pushing the Canadian Dollar to its strongest level since the start of 2015
  • A combination of better inoculation efforts and recovering economy uplifted the Euro to its highest value since mid-January
  • All-time record levels for the MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index climbing over 3.0%

Tempus’ View

  • Greenback could find room to recover as Jobless Claims dropped below 400K for the first time since the pandemic began
  • China’s central bank likely to counter CNY appreciation as currency is at its strongest level since mid-2018
  • Mexican Peso to be volatile as the country faces mid-term elections with constitutional and economic reforms on the line
  • European Central Bank could impact Euro value as they clarify stance on further aid
  • Headlines are probably going to focus on a spending bill, but also competition with China

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