Currency Outlook

APRIL 2019 – IN BRIEF

What happened

  • U.S. Federal Reserve decided that this year could use a break from interest rate hikes, but the greenback persevered, up half a percent
  • Global economy seems slower than the U.S., thus better performance keeping buck afloat
  • Euro tumbled 1.2% as European Central Bank said they will aid banks in September
  • Oceanic central banks admitted they could cut interest rates; AUD & NZD fell 0.5%
  • Brexit delayed to April 12th—for now. Confusion, concern and no plan hurt Sterling
  • Return of the safe-havens: Japanese Yen up 1.0% and Swiss Franc 0.5%

Tempus’ view

  • April 12th Brexit deadline will likely not be it either. Change in government is coming
  • U.S. Dollar could concede ground to other majors if GDP (Q1) significantly falls on average
  • China trade talks could intensify, but if a deal is described as hopeful, it could dent the buck
  • Safe-haven Yen could continue its stride if Bank of Japan is quiet along with markets
  • We still feel other currencies could see recovery against the greenback if their outlook switches towards recovery and economy here reveals fragility

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