Currency Outlook

JULY 2021 – IN BRIEF

What Happened

  • The buck mounted a comeback, rising by 2.2% through June, best move since March 2020
  • As foreseen, the European Central Bank established that they would keep aiding the economy, causing lowest Euro since April
  • The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index fell 1.0% as global momentum cooled off with COVID flare-ups in large countries
  • Delays in re-opening the U.K., to be safe, caused Sterling to drop in value by 2.25%
  • Mexican Peso survived the risk in elections results and was one of few gainers through June

Tempus’ View

  • A period of high volatility is expected to come as central banks are scrutinized over policy
  • European Central Bank officials are more likely to be in consensus than Fed members
  • Potential oil output reductions as a result of no deal in Iran could increase pump prices
  • Canadian Dollar likely to see an upward swing if Bank of Canada stays hawkish after the first month of losses since September
  • July starts with a focus on the ongoing medical crisis as vaccination efforts in many countries are not holding back the death toll

Interested in reading more? Enter your name and email to dive into the details.