Currency Outlook

MAY 2020 CURRENCY OUTLOOK – IN BRIEF

What Happened

  • After reaching its all-time peak in March, the buck’s value declined by 1.0% in April
  • The safe-haven shine rubbed off as equity markets recovered some lost ground
  • Pandemic deadliness and the shutdowns to prevent further damage intensified globally
  • Record-low economic indicators revealed contractions in production and high joblessness
  • April 20th witnessed an oil crash with low demand, overproduction causing storage panic
  • China’s reopening has been slow, but gradual return boosted Oceanic currencies the most

Tempus’ View

  • May will be the first month in which we see a push to get people back to “normal”
  • Nation by nation in Europe, state by state in America, businesses will open up
  • Social distancing norms and aggressive sanitizing will be woven into plans for activity
  • Oil prices and equity markets will continue to experience high volatility and swings as pandemic uncertainty exacerbates
  • The U.S. Dollar will likely return to gains against commodity-based currencies while majors like Euro and GBP also improve

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