Currency Outlook


What Happened

  • The buck mounted a comeback, rising by 2.2% through June, best move since March 2020
  • As foreseen, the European Central Bank established that they would keep aiding the economy, causing lowest Euro since April
  • The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index fell 1.0% as global momentum cooled off with COVID flare-ups in large countries
  • Delays in re-opening the U.K., to be safe, caused Sterling to drop in value by 2.25%
  • Mexican Peso survived the risk in elections results and was one of few gainers through June

Tempus’ View

  • A period of high volatility is expected to come as central banks are scrutinized over policy
  • European Central Bank officials are more likely to be in consensus than Fed members
  • Potential oil output reductions as a result of no deal in Iran could increase pump prices
  • Canadian Dollar likely to see an upward swing if Bank of Canada stays hawkish after the first month of losses since September
  • July starts with a focus on the ongoing medical crisis as vaccination efforts in many countries are not holding back the death toll

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