Currency Outlook

MAY 2019 – IN BRIEF

What happened

  • Feeling like déjà vu as the U.S. Dollar managed another month of swings and 0.8% rise in April
  • Economic performance divergence remains a plus for the greenback as others struggle
  • Mexican Peso was best performer, rose 1.0% based on Latin safe-haven and oil prices
  • Euro finished the month with no gain/loss, as it swung back from weakest level in 2 years
  • New Brexit deadline is Halloween, spooky, scary. Doubt on strategy hurt Pound by 0.5%
  • No safe-haven love this time with Yen even and Swiss Franc suffering a 2.0% slide

Tempus’ view

  • A split between U.K. Conservatives will lead to PM Theresa May reaching out to Labour
  • Euro could see better fortunes if Q1 indicators of expansion continue and data steadies
  • Type random note of hope about China and the U.S. having more than just productive talk
  • Venezuela and tariffs from the U.S. could add to MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index April losses of 1.0%
  • Staying up is what the buck has done best in 2019 with just a half percent gain from start of the year per the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index

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