Currency Outlook

NOVEMBER 2019 – IN BRIEF

What Happened

  • October followed the trend started in September with mixed news causing a 2.0% Dollar drop
  • Dow Jones and other exchanges are trading around their highest levels ever
  • Progress in trade as it pertains to Brexit and China tariffs eased fears of escalation, downturn
  • Pound was the best performer rising by 5.0% as the Brexit deadline was delayed to January 31st , while general elections will be held Dec. 12th
  • The “Loonie” rose as Canada re-elected Justin Trudeau, but with a smaller majority government
  • Another Fed interest rate cut occurred, to 1.75%, signaling concern over financial health

Tempus’ View

  • If a “Phase One” trade agreement with China materializes, buck could sink further
  • A busy six weeks of campaigning in the U.K. will cause wild swings, again, for Sterling
  • A return to expansionary or less negative data points could propel Euro higher if combined with optimistic budget proposals
  • Trouble in Latin America and oil price advancements will help Mexican Peso as a safe-haven asset of the region
  • Anything that reneges on recent talks of preventing further tariffs will turn around markets, aid USD, as risk-aversion takes hold

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