Currency Outlook

MARCH 2019 – IN BRIEF

What happened

  • February witnessed the buck recover by around 0.7%, about half of its January losses per the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index
  • Resource-based currencies dampened their outlooks as BRL and ZAR sank dramatically
  • Australian Dollar and Kiwi (NZD) slowed their roll after central bank pessimism, labor lag
  • GBP surged another 1.4% on improved chances of avoiding a “No-deal” Brexit
  • Slightly more positive indicators prevented Euro from sinking more than half a percent
  • Global equity markets felt revived by positive trade-issue talks with Dow Jones rising 3.4%

Tempus’ view

  • March 29th may lose its importance in the Brexit realm as a delay is requested
  • Euro will return to gains if economic performance shows expansion in indicators
  • Mexican Peso could be set to lose ground after central bank downgraded GDP estimate
  • The prospect of a negotiated trade deal between China and the U.S. could set the spark for greenback weakness
  • Low volatility in markets due to uncertainty could fade in March and thus foster the increase in value of other assets

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