A host of competing narratives and the chaos of global markets is shaking the U.S. dollar. The trade-weighted value of the dollar fell to its lowest since October on Monday.
The state of play:
Currency traders are piling into the Japanese yen as global growth slows and political tensions rise. The yen hit its highest value against the dollar since March on Thursday — but has since reversed course.
- The FX options market is showing that a measurement of call and put options has climbed strongly in favor of the euro, Reuters reports.
- While emerging market currencies have gained since Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish comments on Friday, the dollar has not sold off and EM currencies, which are favored in times when the market expects the Fed to take it easy, have not taken flight.
What we’re hearing from Tempus Inc Senior FX Trader and Strategist Juan Perez:
- “The U.S. Dollar benefits when the globe is in chaos and the problems that were started by the tit-for-tat tariff conflict created a safe-haven scenario… Seems like now the lack of a clear solution to trade issues, the U.S. government shutdown and solutions to political pressures elsewhere, like the Italian budget, have halted the dollar’s momentum.”