The U.S. Dollar is trading in familiar ranges to last week, after losing some ground based on risk-aversion and concerns over legislative efforts.
Tax reform passed the House, but the Senate’s version differs quite a bit and Republicans must have almost every member in agreement to guarantee the bill’s passing.
FX markets are awaiting some key data points this week and headlines could emerge that affect the greenback, but for the most part we expect low volatility. Wednesday will play out to be the busiest day of the week with consumption data and Fed Minutes slated for release.
The Euro slipped overnight as news broke that negotiation to build a governing alliance in Germany has failed. Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing more opposition than at any point in her time as leader of the republic with an influx of radical members to the Bundestag. The traditional parties of Germany suffered losses in general elections and now forming consensus is Merkel’s biggest hurdle.
While the shared currency may have fallen by almost half a percent, it recovered quickly after. We see this as an ongoing long-term political downside risk for Euro, but there will not be an immediate loss unless more drama ensues combined with economic stagnation.
The Pound climbed in value based on news that the British Brexit negotiators are willing to increase the amount of money to be paid to leave the Union. Since this would be quite the olive branch, markets are more optimistic that the divorce proceedings may start making some progress.
We still think that the talks have accomplished very little and that time is of the essence. Businesses are still not happy with the lack of clarity from the talks and are considering sustainability measures of their own. Sterling is now up over 1.3% for the month.