The U.S. Dollar tumbled once more overnight, closing this week about 1.5% worse overall according to the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index. It has been an eventful week with eyes on the political turmoil brewing in Washington, disturbances in global markets, and renewed volatility. Plans for economic expansion are still underway per Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin statements to the Senate Banking Committee yesterday in which he highlighted efforts to push for growth via major tax incentives.
Without any data for today, we see the greenback sustaining its losses and hoping for a better week. The slew of news lately has not aided the “buck,” with economic indicators failing to meet estimates and advances in performance elsewhere.
We hold on to our belief that the dollar will be healthy in the long-term as the Fed remains the one major central bank willing to increase interest rates. Nevertheless, some of the major currencies merit their higher value and only focus on their regional concerns (Brexit, nuclear conflict threat, future elections) could upend the upward progress seen recently.
The Euro has surged by 2.6% thus far in May, reaching its strongest level since the start of November. Yesterday the Minutes from the last European Central Bank meeting revealed that indeed officials are confident about the economy, but do not want to motivate bets on rapid Euro appreciation. There was mention of potentially cutting some of the QE that still remains for 2017, but President Mario Draghi had warned that the ECB outlook would remain accommodative and cautious.
At the moment, EUR is a good bet after the French elections eased the political downside risks that had kept the shared currency quite subdued. Other underlying issues could bring EUR down later, but as long as the spotlight is on American political news and unstable markets, the carry-trade tender shall stay afloat.
The Pound reversed losses from yesterday’s session as no other data was released to affect it current strengthening status. The sturdy currency has been improving because of mixed data that suggests the British economy can withstand obstacles from the rapid depreciation that Sterling had after the referendum on leaving the EU last year.
The Brexit talks are not getting the attention that it merits because American dynamics have become a bigger factor in market movements; however, any difficulties between UK and EU lawmakers could possibly impose a threat to the recent upward trend. GBP is 6.4% for the year and is ranked as the 6th strongest performing currency.