Daily Market Update

Pound back to losing, all others quiet

November 27, 2018

The U.S. Dollar is relatively flat this morning against most of its counterparts, with British Pound being the exception.

Overview

Prime Minister Theresa May’s chances of passing her Brexit deal through parliament look dire with criticism coming from all sides, particularly President Donald Trump who suggested the current draft will not be good enough to strike a trade deal with the U.S. later.

Other than Brexit, the markets are also digesting further complications in the U.S.-China trade conflict with the White House promising more tariffs on more products. A meeting between the heads of state from the two strongest economies will take place at the G-20 meeting that will be held in Buenos Aires on Friday, a city currently in a tough security situation after issues that ruined the South American soccer club final when players were attacked as their bus tried to enter the stadium. There could be surprises as some leaders have put into doubt their attendance.

 

What to Watch Today…

  • No major events scheduled for today.

The complete economic calendar can be found here.

 

EUR

The Euro is holding steady as mixed data from some of the largest member nations were released earlier in the European trading session. Italy’s Manufacturing sector revealed the confidence reading expected as surveys went out, but Consumer Confidence is down also in France and Spain.

Indeed, consumption has been a slow gainer ever since the financial crisis, but we shall see if the European Central Bank pays attention. ECB will meet on December 13th to finalize their quantitative easing program and discuss if 2019 is a year when they can look to hike interest rates. With so much riding on Brexit and overall trade dynamics, this may seem unrealistic, thus keeping the shared currency subdued as the year ends.

GBP

Sterling is down once again as the United Kingdom’s future within the EU looks uncertain and the U.S. seems to disagree with current proceedings. While PM Theresa May tries keeping hope of resolving issues with her deal proposals, the opposition domestically and abroad keeps growing.

Many analysts agree that the U.K. will have a very tough time re-writing trade deals or achieving much with other countries if the Brexit means less economic leverage. This fear is also of concern to credit markets as Moody’s and S&P, rating agencies, have warned that the lack of progress and clarity are factors worth considering towards a credit downgrade for the nation.

 

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