Daily Market Update

FOMC minutes: More hikes coming soon; trade a worry

August 22, 2018

(Reuters) - U.S. central bankers discussed raising interest rates soon to counter excessive economic strength but also examined how global trade disputes could batter businesses and households, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting showed on Wednesday.

KEY POINTS:

* MANY PARTICIPANTS SAID IT WOULD LIKELY “SOON” BE APPROPRIATE TO RAISE INTEREST RATES

* PARTICIPANTS GENERALLY EXPECTED FURTHER GRADUAL HIKES

* PARTICIPANTS GENERALLY NOTED THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE MOMENTUM IN HOUSEHOLD AND BUSINESS SPENDING

* PARTICIPANTS SAID THEY GENERALLY EXPECTED THAT U.S. GDP GROWTH WOULD SLOW IN SECOND HALF OF 2018 BUT REMAIN ABOVE POTENTIAL

* MANY PARTICIPANTS NOTED WOULD LIKELY BE APPROPRIATE IN “NOT-TOO-DISTANT FUTURE” TO NO LONGER REFER TO MONETARY POLICY STANCE AS ACCOMMODATIVE

* MOST PARTICIPANTS SAID ESCALATION OF TRADE DISPUTES WAS A POTENTIALLY CONSEQUENTIAL DOWNSIDE RISK FOR U.S. ECONOMY

* ALL PARTICIPANTS POINTED TO ONGOING TRADE DISAGREEMENTS AND PROPOSED TRADE MEASURES AS IMPORTANT SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISKS

* PARTICIPANTS SAID LARGE-SCALE AND PROLONGED TRADE DISPUTE WOULD LIKELY HAVE ADVERSE EFFECTS ON BUSINESS SENTIMENT, INVESTMENT AND EMPLOYMENT

* FED CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL SUGGESTED U.S. CENTRAL BANK WOULD LIKELY RESUME DISCUSSION OF OPERATING FRAMEWORKS FOR MONETARY POLICY IN THE FALL

JUAN PEREZ, SENIOR CURRENCY TRADER, Monex, INC., WASHINGTON:
“Apparently this is being taken as a dollar-negative even when the buck has managed to gain as a safe-haven. The notes are a mixed bag between good observations in regards to the consistency of economic indicators such as labor, GDP, and even inflation, but the geopolitical issues started to find their way into the written thoughts of officials.”

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